Texas Hold'em guide
Poker odds: outs, pot odds and the rule of 2 and 4
Count your outs, turn them into a percentage, and compare it with the price of calling. If your chance of winning is higher than the share of the final pot you have to put in, the call makes money over time.
What are outs and how do you count them?
Outs are the unseen cards that would turn your hand into one that's likely to win. To count them, list the cards that complete your draw and leave out the ones you can already see.
A flush draw has four cards of one suit, so 13 − 4 = 9 of that suit are left: 9 outs. An open-ended straight draw like 9-8-7-6 is completed by any of the four tens or four fives: 8 outs. A gutshot, with one card missing from the middle, has 4 outs.
Three hands from the practice table
This is what the practice table's odds assistant finds in three common flop spots. It lists every card that improves you, grouped by the hand it makes.
Flush draw
- Flush: 9
- One pair: 6
The 9 hearts are strong outs. The 6 cards that pair your ace or nine help much less — a pair of nines still loses to anyone holding a king.
Open-ended straight draw
- Straight: 8
- One pair: 6
Any ten or five makes your straight: 8 strong outs. Pairing your nine or eight is a far weaker improvement.
A set drawing to a full house
- Four of a kind: 1
- Full house: 6
You're probably ahead already. The 6 cards that pair the board give you a full house, and the last seven makes four of a kind.
Not every out is equal. If a card that completes your draw could also give an opponent a better hand — the fourth heart when they might hold a bigger flush, say — count it as half an out or leave it out.
Outs to percentage: the full table
After the flop there are 47 unseen cards — 52 minus your 2 and the 3 on the board. After the turn there are 46.
| Outs | Next card | Turn + river | Rule of 2 | Rule of 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.1% | 4.3% | 2% | 4% |
| 2 | 4.3% | 8.4% | 4% | 8% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 12.5% | 6% | 12% |
| 4 | 8.5% | 16.5% | 8% | 16% |
| 5 | 10.6% | 20.4% | 10% | 20% |
| 6 | 12.8% | 24.1% | 12% | 24% |
| 7 | 14.9% | 27.8% | 14% | 28% |
| 8 | 17.0% | 31.5% | 16% | 32% |
| 9 | 19.1% | 35.0% | 18% | 36% |
| 10 | 21.3% | 38.4% | 20% | 40% |
| 11 | 23.4% | 41.7% | 22% | 44% |
| 12 | 25.5% | 45.0% | 24% | 48% |
| 13 | 27.7% | 48.1% | 26% | 52% |
| 14 | 29.8% | 51.2% | 28% | 56% |
| 15 | 31.9% | 54.1% | 30% | 60% |
| 16 | 34.0% | 57.0% | 32% | 64% |
| 17 | 36.2% | 59.8% | 34% | 68% |
| 18 | 38.3% | 62.4% | 36% | 72% |
| 19 | 40.4% | 65.0% | 38% | 76% |
| 20 | 42.6% | 67.5% | 40% | 80% |
Exact odds from the flop: next card = outs ÷ 47; by the river = 1 − (47 − outs)/47 × (46 − outs)/46. On the turn, the river card is outs ÷ 46.
What are pot odds and how do you calculate them?
Pot odds compare the price of a call with what you can win. The share of the final pot you're paying — the equity you need to break even — is call ÷ (pot after the bet + call).
The practice table shows this number in the "Price to call" box whenever you face a bet, right next to your actual win chance.
Worked example at 10/20 blinds
The pot is 100 on the flop. Your opponent bets 50, so the pot grows to 150 and it costs 50 to call. You need 25% equity: 50 ÷ (150 + 50).
A flush draw hits on the turn 19.1% of the time — less than 25%, so calling for one card loses chips on price alone. If your opponent is all in and you'll see both the turn and the river, your chance rises to 35.0%, which is more than enough to call.
Common bet sizes and the equity you need to call
| Opponent bets | Equity needed |
|---|---|
| ⅓ pot | 20.0% |
| ½ pot | 25.0% |
| ⅔ pot | 28.6% |
| Pot | 33.3% |
| 2× pot | 40.0% |
What is the rule of 2 and 4?
It's a mental shortcut: multiply your outs by 2 for your chance of hitting on the next card, or by 4 for your chance by the river when you'll see both cards.
It's close for small draws but overestimates big ones: with 15 outs the rule of 4 says 60% while the true chance is 54.1%. A common fix is to subtract (outs − 8) from the rule-of-4 result whenever you have more than 8 outs: 60 − 7 = 53%.
Only use the rule of 4 when you're sure to see both cards for the current price — usually when your opponent is all in. Otherwise you may have to pay again on the turn.
What are implied odds?
Implied odds count the chips you expect to win on later streets when you hit. A call that's slightly too expensive on pot odds alone can still be right if your opponent will pay you off when your draw comes in.
They work best with hidden draws — a gutshot, or a small pair hoping for a set — and deep stacks. They're weak when the board makes your draw obvious or your opponent has few chips left.
Why does the practice table show a win chance, not just outs?
Outs only count the cards that help you. Your win chance (equity) also accounts for what opponents might hold and the times you win without improving. The odds assistant estimates it by dealing out the rest of the hand 12,000 times against the players still in the pot.
Use outs to understand why your chance is what it is, and the win chance to make the decision.
Frequently asked questions
How do you calculate poker odds quickly?
Count your outs, then multiply by 2 with one card to come or by 4 with two. A flush draw (9 outs) is about 18% on the next card and 36% by the river; the exact figures are 19.1% and 35.0%.
What pot odds do you need to call a draw?
Call when your chance of winning is higher than call ÷ (pot + call). Facing a half-pot bet you need 25%; a pot-sized bet needs about 33%. A flush draw with one card to come (about 19%) usually needs implied odds to call.
How many outs does a flush draw have?
Nine. Each suit has 13 cards; with four of them in your hand and on the board, nine are left.